Preseason Rankings
Texas Tech
Big 12
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.9#14
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.1#232
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.7#29
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.2#6
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.2% 2.3% 0.1%
#1 Seed 9.0% 9.1% 0.9%
Top 2 Seed 18.3% 18.5% 2.5%
Top 4 Seed 35.9% 36.2% 10.1%
Top 6 Seed 51.1% 51.5% 16.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 77.1% 77.5% 41.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 73.6% 74.0% 38.9%
Average Seed 5.2 5.2 7.3
.500 or above 89.8% 90.2% 56.2%
.500 or above in Conference 73.3% 73.6% 41.2%
Conference Champion 15.1% 15.3% 4.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 2.6% 7.5%
First Four3.1% 3.0% 4.4%
First Round75.8% 76.2% 40.1%
Second Round56.6% 57.0% 25.0%
Sweet Sixteen33.0% 33.2% 13.2%
Elite Eight18.1% 18.2% 4.7%
Final Four9.3% 9.4% 2.3%
Championship Game4.8% 4.8% 0.2%
National Champion2.4% 2.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern St. (Home) - 98.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 8
Quad 25 - 111 - 9
Quad 33 - 014 - 10
Quad 46 - 019 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 283   Northwestern St. W 88-63 99%    
  Nov 27, 2020 246   Sam Houston St. W 85-62 99%    
  Nov 29, 2020 18   Houston W 69-68 53%    
  Dec 03, 2020 73   St. John's W 80-70 82%    
  Dec 06, 2020 316   Grambling St. W 83-55 99%    
  Dec 09, 2020 173   Abilene Christian W 79-60 95%    
  Dec 12, 2020 303   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 79-56 98%    
  Dec 17, 2020 4   Kansas W 70-69 53%    
  Dec 22, 2020 29   @ Oklahoma L 72-73 49%    
  Dec 29, 2020 336   Incarnate Word W 85-53 99.7%   
  Jan 02, 2021 42   Oklahoma St. W 74-67 74%    
  Jan 05, 2021 89   Kansas St. W 73-61 85%    
  Jan 09, 2021 71   @ Iowa St. W 76-72 63%    
  Jan 13, 2021 15   @ Texas L 65-68 41%    
  Jan 16, 2021 2   Baylor L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 20, 2021 69   @ TCU W 68-64 62%    
  Jan 23, 2021 71   Iowa St. W 79-69 80%    
  Jan 25, 2021 7   @ West Virginia L 69-73 38%    
  Jan 30, 2021 30   @ LSU L 76-77 49%    
  Feb 01, 2021 29   Oklahoma W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 06, 2021 89   @ Kansas St. W 70-64 69%    
  Feb 09, 2021 7   West Virginia W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 13, 2021 2   @ Baylor L 66-72 30%    
  Feb 17, 2021 69   TCU W 71-61 80%    
  Feb 20, 2021 4   @ Kansas L 67-72 33%    
  Feb 23, 2021 42   @ Oklahoma St. W 71-70 55%    
  Feb 27, 2021 15   Texas W 68-65 60%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 2.0 3.7 4.2 2.7 1.4 0.4 15.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 4.1 5.5 3.7 0.9 0.1 15.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.2 5.3 2.2 0.4 0.0 15.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.1 4.7 1.6 0.2 13.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.0 3.9 1.0 0.1 12.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.1 2.8 0.6 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.1 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.3 4.7 6.9 8.6 10.1 11.6 12.3 11.7 9.9 7.8 5.2 2.9 1.4 0.4 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4 0.0
16-2 95.6% 2.7    2.4 0.3
15-3 81.4% 4.2    3.0 1.1 0.1
14-4 46.9% 3.7    1.7 1.6 0.4 0.0
13-5 20.5% 2.0    0.6 1.0 0.4 0.1
12-6 5.6% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.1% 15.1 9.6 4.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 61.0% 39.0% 1.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.4% 100.0% 55.4% 44.6% 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.9% 100.0% 45.6% 54.4% 1.4 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.2% 100.0% 36.6% 63.4% 1.7 2.4 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 7.8% 100.0% 28.8% 71.2% 2.3 2.1 2.7 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 9.9% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 3.3 0.8 2.2 2.9 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 11.7% 100.0% 14.1% 85.9% 4.5 0.2 1.0 2.4 2.9 2.4 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 12.3% 99.5% 11.0% 88.5% 5.8 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.9 2.4 2.3 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.5%
10-8 11.6% 95.0% 7.0% 88.0% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.0 2.4 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 94.7%
9-9 10.1% 82.2% 4.0% 78.2% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.8 81.5%
8-10 8.6% 51.4% 3.6% 47.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.2 49.6%
7-11 6.9% 23.0% 2.8% 20.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.3 20.8%
6-12 4.7% 4.4% 1.4% 3.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.5 3.1%
5-13 3.3% 0.9% 0.9% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.1%
4-14 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 77.1% 13.3% 63.8% 5.2 9.0 9.3 9.1 8.5 8.1 7.1 7.1 5.6 4.4 3.2 2.6 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 22.9 73.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 87.7 12.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0